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eBook The Right Decision: A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory epub

by James Stein

eBook The Right Decision: A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory epub
  • ISBN: 0071614192
  • Author: James Stein
  • Genre: Science
  • Subcategory: Mathematics
  • Language: English
  • Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education; 1 edition (November 19, 2009)
  • Pages: 256 pages
  • ePUB size: 1509 kb
  • FB2 size 1491 kb
  • Formats lrf lit doc azw


The Right Decision involves a more specific subject (decision theory) but targets a more general audience. Stein "coaches" the reader in making rational decisions about all sorts of matters. Bridge, tennis, Starbucks, Barbara Streisand,. it's mentally stimulating and fun to read

The Right Decision involves a more specific subject (decision theory) but targets a more general audience. it's mentally stimulating and fun to read. I'm a slow reader but easily finished the book in a day. Leonard Wapner Professor of Mathematics El Camino College.

Is there ever a right decision? Professor James Stein would argue yes, and in this provocative new book, he shows you how to apply the mathematical principles of Decision . With The Right Decision, you can't go wrong.

Is there ever a right decision? Professor James Stein would argue yes, and in this provocative new book, he shows you how to apply the mathematical principles of Decision Theory to every aspect of your life.

The Right Decision book. There is always a best decision. James Stein explains elements of decisions. Many times math is involved other times a decision making approach is used. If you What I learned from this book.

The Right Decision : A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory.

A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory Can Help You Make the Right Decision Every Time the Ri9ht Decision J A ME S S T EIN, P . New York Chicago San Francisco Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan New Delhi San Juan Seoul Singapore Sydney Toronto.

The study of decision making, consequently, is a palimpsest of intellectual .

The study of decision making, consequently, is a palimpsest of intellectual disciplines: mathematics, sociology, psychology, economics, and political science, to name a fe. Pascal’s wager on the existence of God shows that for a decision maker, the consequences, rather than the likelihood, of being wrong can be paramount. In their book on game theory, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern describe a mathematical basis for economic decision making; like most theorists before them, they take the view that decision makers are rational and consistent. The Alabe Crafts Company of Cincinnati markets the Magic 8 Ball.

Поиск книг BookFi BookSee - Download books for free. The Right Decision: A Mathematician Reveals How the Secrets of Decision Theory. How Math Explains the World: A Guide to the Power of Numbers, from Car Repair to Modern Physics. Категория: Математика, Математическая физика.

Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to. .

Making Better Decisions introduces readers to some of the principal aspects of decision theory, and examines how these might lead us to make better decisions. File: PDF, . 1 MB. Critical Thinking Toolkit: A Compendium of Concepts and Methods for Reasoning.

Decision theory (or the theory of choice not to be confused with choice theory) is the study of an agent's choices. Decision theory can be broken into two branches: normative decision theory, which analyzes the outcomes of decisions or determines the optimal decisions given constraints and assumptions, and descriptive decision theory, which analyzes how agents actually make the decisions they do.

When it comes to making the right decision, don’t leave it up to chance Professor and mathematician James Stein demystifies Decision Theory and shows you how you can apply the principles of this exciting new field of mathematics to help you make the right decisions in al.

When it comes to making the right decision, don’t leave it up to chance Professor and mathematician James Stein demystifies Decision Theory and shows you how you can apply the principles of this exciting new field of mathematics to help you make the right decisions in all areas of your life. The Right Decision is peppered with intriguing ‘Decision Exercises’ to make complicated ideas seem simple, revolutionizing the way you think and make choices.

CAN YOU EVER BE SURE YOU'RE MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION?

Should you stay in a comfy job with little chance of advancement-or take a riskier one in which you could make lots of money but also wind up on the street?

Should you listen to a doctor who advises surgery-or trust another who tells you to wait and see if your condition improves?

Should you remain in a cozy relationship without much spark-or cut your losses and search for your soul mate?

Is there ever a “right” decision? Professor James Stein would argue yes, and in this provocative new book, he shows you how to apply the mathematical principles of Decision Theory to every aspect of your life. Ingeniously blending statistics, probability, game theory, economics, and even philosophy, this dynamic new approach to decision making can help you choose a new career path, buy a better home, even pick the perfect mate. With The Right Decision, you can't go wrong.

INCLUDES ENTERTAINING INTERACTIVE QUIZZES TO HELP YOU MAKE THE RIGHT DECISION EVERY TIME!

Comments: (7)
romrom
Since I read it, life has gone right so far. Explanations might befuddle some, but our reality is probabilistic. Methods given help give us the max edge in a reality with no sure bets.
Mall
The book presents various decision situations with the author's view on what the right decision is. The problem I find is that the actual decision situations we experience are much more complicated than the descriptions in the book. Given the author's descriptions of the example, we cannot decide which option is the best option. The author gives various historical examples, but the author's justifications for what decisions were right ones are only post-hoc. The author does not discuss any current problems; and he should not do so without considering various factors affecting decisions, which he can't do in this book, primarily written for dummies who do not understand any math or complexity of actual (and ordinary) problems.
Chilele
I've read two of Stein's books and enjoyed them both. The first, How Math Explains the World, is a diverse collection of mathematical applications in science and society. The Right Decision involves a more specific subject (decision theory) but targets a more general audience.

Stein "coaches" the reader in making rational decisions about all sorts of matters. Bridge, tennis, Starbucks, Barbara Streisand, ... ; it's mentally stimulating and fun to read. I'm a slow reader but easily finished the book in a day.

Leonard Wapner
Professor of Mathematics
El Camino College
Weernis
....life in general is much more complex. And still more complex with our ideals and values entwined with our decisions. If this was your first book on choices and its probabilities, and becoming aware of applying certain factors to them in hope they go your way, then its worth a read. It was my first to get informed on the Criterion Principles: Admissible, Minimax, Maximax, and Baye. They are method theories to help aide your decision making. They are probably the Meat N potatoes of the book. The author means well, but lots of his practice scenarios come with little details to help making decisions. Also, he see's situations from his own point of view or from his values point of view. WHich would be different for you and me. THere are times when your answer fits best with his, but he explains from his own point of view why it should go his way. In real life, that probably wont happen. But nevertheless, he gets you thinking about scenarios and life, and that's good. Its not complicated so if your not a mathematician, you can enjoy it with a cup of coffee.
Eseve
I gave up on this book after a while. However, it may be useful to people who need a structure or label to organise their thoughts. What I took from the book is that there isn't always a clear correct answer (although the book may have you believe otherwise). Word of caution: The book wildly claims that it can "help you make the right decision every time". While I doubted that premise, I read it hoping to improve my decision making powers.

The book is divided into two parts. The first, explains basic concepts which such as minimising the maximum damage and risk-reward functions. If you've done basic micro-economics or financial economics (as I have), there's not much new here. This is the part that may be useful to someone who is looking to understand simple game theory or the concepts of short term vs long term analysis.

The second part of the book is a collection of quizzes. This is the part which I treated with caution. You are given a scenario, a dilemma and three options. The best option has a score of 5 and the worst option can have a score of 1 or lower. The book does an enviable task of creating hypotheticals but I found some of the 'answers' in the quizzes questionable.

For e.g., in one quizz, you are told that your best friend has died. You and your best friend don't see eye to eye on some things in life but always agreeing to disagree. You have been asked by her family to donate to a specific animal rights organisation instead of buying flowers. However, you are opposed to this idea because the specific animal rights organisation opposes testing on animals. One of your friends lived because of a medical procedure that was first experimented on with animals. Should you (a) donate to the animal rights organisation anyway? (b) find another organisation, one that your best friend would not have minded? or (c) donate to your local animal shelter?

In my mind, (a) is the best option because come on - of course it is. Your best friend just passed and her family has asked that you donate. Shouldn't a best friend be able to put aside his/her personal preference on this issue at a time like this? The book however advocates option (c).

A simple quizz like this is fraught with so many factors that it is hard to arrive at a right option, let alone (and in fairness to the book) put it down in words. Some may feel all three are viable. Some, like myself, will feel that (a) is the best because it is a one-time thing. The rest might think the middle ground (b) is the best.

The point is, many of the answers to the quizzes are judgment calls that are made based on one's life experience, moral values, general knowledge, and knowledge of specific individuals.

If you are looking to improve your decision making ability, and have a basic understanding of game theory, risk-reward function, etc, look elsewhere.
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